Digitization, Prediction, and Market Efficiency: Evidence from Book Publishing Deals

Call Market Book Information and Efficiency∗

What are the consequences of making bids and offers in the book available to traders in a call market? This is a problem in market design. We employ a computational mechanism design methodology to attack this problem and find that allocative efficiencies are higher in a closed book design. We validate our computational approach by running a series of tests with human subjects in exactly the sam...

Efficiency in prediction markets, evidence from SciCast.org

Prediction markets have been proposed as an mechanism for collective information elicitation. We analyze data from SciCast, an online prediction market focused on events of scientific interest, to understand the predictive power of the prices to forecast events. Users receive a fixed number of points (5,000) when they join the site, and can trade contingent claims on the different outcomes of t...

Sophisticated Trading and Market Efficiency: Evidence from Macroeconomic News Announcements

This paper studies how the views of sophisticated traders are impounded into stocks and bonds around macroeconomic news announcements. I find evidence that sophisticated traders trade on predictions of macroeconomic news reports before announcements and obtain their informational advantage using public information. Specifically, consensus forecasts of upcoming data releases suffer from anchorin...

Labor market rigidities and economic efficiency: Evidence from Spain

► We assess the impact of Spanish labor reforms that restricted the use of temporary workers. ► We study the gap between an input's value of marginal product and its price. ► Our results suggest a positive and significant impact of these reforms on the permanent labor gap. a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o In the 1990s, Spain approved two labor reforms aimed at reducing the unemployment lev...

Bond Market Efficiency: Some Evidence